A new dynamism in Sino-Japanese security relations: Japan's strategic use of foreign aid

Abstract

In November 2004 a Chinese nuclear submarine cruised into Japan's territorial waters near the Okinawa Islands. In response, the Japanese government dispatched several Japanese naval ships and planes to chase the Chinese submarine until it navigated into international waters. This event, which potentially could have become the first exchange of fire between Japan and China since the Second World War, illuminated increasingly problematic security relations between the two neighbouring countries in the twenty-first century. In fact, deterioration of Sino-Japanese security relations is not a recent phenomenon but has already been evident since the mid-1990s, when Japan imposed a series of economic sanctions on China. Between 1995 and 2000 Japan had suspended its foreign aid to China in protest against: China's nuclear weapons tests; China's large scale war game including the launch of missiles across the Taiwan Strait; and Chinese naval activities in disputed areas in the East China Sea. This article looks at Sino-Japanese security relations since the mid-1990s through three case studies of the aid sanctions imposed by Japan on China. It clarifies the domestic political and bureaucratic interests that motivated aid sanctions and determined the decision-making process leading to these sanctions. The article argues, that with certain politico-security interests, Japanese governments actively used foreign aid as a strategic instrument to counter provocative military actions by China in the East Asian region since the mid-1990s. Despite the limited influence that Japanese aid sanctions have actually had on Chinese military behaviour, Japan's strategic use of foreign aid has undeniably created a new dynamism in security relations between the two neighbouring great powers in Asia.     

NATO's nuclear addiction – 12 steps to ‘kick the habit’

The article argues that NATO is a nuclear-addicted alliance. It focuses on how the addiction developed, the damage caused by the addiction and ways in which it may be overcome. After outlining the origins to NATO's nuclear addiction, the article turns to the recent defence and deterrence posture review (DDPR), which is seen as a classic example of ‘addict behaviour’ spoiling the best chance NATO has had for overcoming its addiction. The article offers an assessment of the DDPR, portraying the outcome of the process as not only a lost opportunity, but unfortunately also as a position that limits the possibilities for reaching a constructive agreement on the important question of the remaining non-strategic nuclear weapons based in Europe. The article ends by suggesting 12 steps for NATO to overcome its addiction, although it is acknowledged that the DDPR has severely restricted NATO's room for maneuver leaving only a slim chance for ‘complete recovery’.     

Bureaucratic power at play? The performance of the EU in the International Atomic Energy Agency

This article examines the performance of the European Union (EU) in the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). Following Barnett and Finnemore, the article argues that the EU as an intergovernmental organization (IO) possesses bureaucratic power based on high technical knowledge and rational–legal authority that it can use to gain influence in the Agency. The EU uses its technical knowledge to be a first-mover in political and technical discussions, and uses its financial support to influence the Agency's technical standards and practices for nuclear safeguards, security, and safety. Nevertheless, the analysis shows that its rational–legal authority as an international organization is limited. Being a regional IO, it does not automatically possess the impartiality and hence legitimacy that ordinarily characterize an international organization. Thus, to further improve its performance in the IAEA, the EU must look beyond internal policy issues and focus on its external legitimacy and standing as well.     

Predicting Peril or the Peril of Prediction? Assessing the Risk of CBRN Terrorism

Since the mid-1990s, academic and policy communities have debated the risk posed by terrorist use of chemical, biological, radiological, or nuclear (CBRN) weapons. Three major schools of thought in the debate have emerged: the optimists, the pessimists, and the pragmatists. Although these three schools of thought draw on the same limited universe of data on CBRN terrorism, they arrive at strikingly different conclusions. Given the highly subjective process of CBRN terrorism risk assessment, this article analyzes the influence of mental shortcuts (called heuristics) and the systemic errors they create (called biases) on the risk assessment process. This article identifies and provides illustrative examples of a range of heuristics and biases that lead to the underestimation of risks, the overestimation of risks and, most importantly, those that degrade the quality of the debate about the level of risk. While these types of biases are commonly seen as affecting the public's perception of risk, such biases can also be found in risk assessments by experts. The article concludes with recommendations for improving the CBRN risk assessment process.     

Management of Megaproject During the Turbulent Period of Economic and Political Transformation in Slovakia

Megaprojects have distinctive characters when compared with smaller construction projects. Cost overruns and time delays are quite common. Risk management of such projects is quite complex, and many risks are not evident at the beginning. We deal in detail with serious political risks that are quite strong especially in Central and Eastern Europe. At the end, the author outlines the economic impact of the project as well as possible lessons that were acquired during its realization. In the present paper, the author analyzes the process of completion of Units 3 and 4 of the nuclear power plant （NPP） in Mochovce--the largest megaproject ever realized in Slovakia. Large and complex projects, especially highways, bridges, and NPPs are unique in that their construction ventures into the jurisdictions of many other utilities and disciplines, and they tend to affect large industrial or commercial areas. As such, they influence and get influenced by many stakeholders. Project managers who are not attentively interacting the project environment are likely to face difficulties during planning and execution of their projects. Stakeholder management is a major activity in projects. This is further emphasized when projects are large and complex by nature.     

美朝核风波的实质与六方会谈的出路

美朝核风波再起的实质是美国霸权与朝鲜生存权的又一次政治博弈,美朝核风波的实质看成是生存权与霸权的政治博弈。进而为此展开的六方会谈框架又成为一组多方政治博弈平台。在美朝核风波愈演愈烈、几近战争临界值之际,中国从维护地区安全出发,积极出面斡旋,经三方会谈而达成了六方会谈框架。六方会谈的达成意义重大,舒解了“战争临界”;彰显了“中国作用”;取得了可视化成果。不应否认,六方会谈框架存在某种不足,却仍是解决朝核问题的最现实、最可行的方式。     

国际反恐合作与不引渡问题探析——以首例“核暗杀”事件嫌疑犯的引渡案为切入点

首例"核暗杀"事件嫌疑犯的引渡风波,发生于《制止核恐怖主义行为国际公约》生效前后,突显了国际反恐合作与不引渡问题之间的现实矛盾和激烈冲突。如何消除引渡障碍和加强国际反恐合作,成为国际社会必须面对和亟待解决的问题。通过对各种对策的分析可以发现,"审罚分离"是有效消除障碍、加强合作并缓解反恐合作与不引渡这对矛盾的良策。这一国际社会的新举措,对于已签署该公约的中国,尤其是对于完善中国的有关引渡合作,更具有积极的指导和借鉴意义。     

Validation of the MiniFiler™ Kit in archaeological samples

We evaluate the usefulness of MiniFiler™ Kit in the field of ancient DNA. A set of samples belonging to different locations from Iberian Peninsula, with ages ranging from Neolithic to XVII century, was tested. Results could be replicated in only one burial site, probably due to the taphonomic conditions. Other cases could only produce partial or none genetic profiles.     

Political ideology and nuclear energy: Perception,proximity, and trust

Political ideology is an increasingly powerful force in support of public policy. Historically, nuclear energy has found more support among political conservatives. This study updates the literature on political ideology and support for nuclear energy by examining how political ideology is associated with perceptions of nuclear energy and trust of nuclear information sources. After excluding participants with incomplete data, and participants within 50 miles of a nuclear reactor, the analytical sample size for the analysis examining political ideology and perceptions of nuclear energy was 4153. The analytical sample includes a total of 1035 participants within a 50-mile radius of INL, 710 participants from within Idaho who lived further than 50 miles from INL, 1899 participants from other states (more than 50 miles from a nuclear reactor), and 509 Non-Idaho participants living within 50 miles of a nuclear reactor. Logistic regression was used to determine how political ideology was associated with perceptions of nuclear energy and trust in different sources regarding radioactive waste, after controlling for demographics and location. While liberal participants near INL were less favorable towards nuclear energy, and more trusting in impact scientists to tell the truth about radioactive waste than their conservative counterparts, this was not consistent across the US. Our findings reveal the complexity of political ideology and the perceptions of nuclear issues and how proximity influences perceptions. The perceptions of political moderates were particularly important in providing a more complex understanding of political ideology and nuclear energy issues.     

日本民用核能法律制度创新对中国的启示

日本于1955年正式公布《原子能基本法》后,经历了两大发展阶段,形成了较为系统的民用核能法律体系,却以福岛核事故为转折点暴露了诸多问题。此后日本根据多重防护理论进行构建,以新建立的原子能规制委员会为核心,依托民用核能损害赔偿为主的民事诉讼与"定期检查许可证交付"为主的行政诉讼的司法实践,辅之以《电气事业会计准则》为基础的民用核能特别会计准则制度,建立起了一套以理论建构、制度架构、司法实践为主,财务会计制度等为辅的日本特色民用核能法律制度体系。鉴于我国推进"一带一路"进程中民用核能合作高速发展以及《核安全法》问世,民用核能法律制度亟需受到高度重视。日本民用核能法律制度发展的新理论、新框架及创新内容,为中国民用核能发展提供了在决策机制、透明度设计等方面多层次、宽领域的启示。